Cash Reality & Runway

Evaluates whether the business can survive the timing of real cash flows under normal and stressed operating conditions. It surfaces liquidity risk hidden inside burn, commitments, and working capital dynamics — focusing on when cash leaves and enters the business, not headline runway or forecasted assumptions.

Evaluators apply strict cash definitions. Assumptions, averages, or inferred timing score zero.

Why cash reality matters more than profit

A business can be profitable on paper and still run out of cash. The timing of when money enters and leaves the business determines survival, not accounting margins. Many founders rely on headline runway numbers that assume stable burn and predictable collections — both of which fail under real conditions.

This evaluator decomposes burn into its real structure, maps committed outflows, identifies working capital exposure, and stress-tests runway under adverse scenarios to determine whether the business can survive between decisions.

Typical flow

  1. 1
    Decompose true monthly burn
  2. 2
    Map committed cash outflows and timing
  3. 3
    Identify working capital exposure
  4. 4
    Stress-test runway under downside scenarios
  5. 5
    Re-evaluate survivability

Evaluation scope

THIS EVALUATOR DECIDES

  • Whether runway is real or illusory
  • Whether burn is controllable or structurally locked
  • Whether timing gaps create liquidity cliffs
  • Whether the business survives between decisions

THIS EVALUATOR DOES NOT DO

  • Recommend fundraising
  • Suggest cost reductions
  • Optimise cash management
  • Extend runway through assumptions

Evidence requirements

  • Bank balances and cash movements
  • Contracted and committed cash obligations
  • Real burn components, not budgets
  • Working capital timing gaps
  • Unknown cash timing scores zero

How missing evidence is generated

If required evidence is missing, ProfitBooks uses controlled operators to generate it.

Operators generate evidence. They do not decide fit.

Operators

Runway Reality Calculator

Calculates true cash runway under base and stress conditions using observed burn, cash position, and timing effects.

Run operator

Working Capital Exposure

Calculates the working capital required to survive timing gaps between inflows and outflows under real operating conditions.

Run operator

True Burn Decomposition

Breaks monthly burn into its real components to reveal burn quality, controllability, and hidden structural costs.

Run operator

Cash-Out Commitment Mapping

Maps all committed cash outflows and their timing to expose liquidity cliffs hidden inside monthly burn profiles.

Run operator

Evaluator contract: This evaluator assesses survivability under real cash timing. Forecasts and intentions do not change scoring.

Related Assessments

FROM THE KNOWLEDGE BASE

Most founders calculate runway by dividing cash by monthly burn. This article explains why that calculation is dangerously misleading. Read: Cash Runway Is Not What You Think It Is.

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